NOAA Releases Winter Outlook

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Posted: October 20, 2023 at 7:46 am

The fine folks at NOAA released their winter outlook yesterday, and it looks like above normal temps around area area….

Temperature

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West
  • The greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.
  • Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains.
  • Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.

Precipitation

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.
  • The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.
  • Much of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

Drought

  • Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues to persist across much of the South, and portions of the central U.S.
  • Drought conditions are expected to improve across the Southeast, the Gulf Coast (including the lower Mississippi Valley), and Texas due to the expected wetter-than-average forecast.
  • Drought conditions are expected to persist for the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and portions of the desert Southwest this winter.
  • Drought development could occur in the interior Pacific Northwest given the chance for drier-than-average conditions.
  • Drought is likely to persist or develop across Hawaii.

Check out the full report here.

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